tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.comments2023-05-18T04:18:12.048-07:00theory 2 lifeCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05659688654057889460noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-1368307736619662232011-05-12T10:14:47.858-07:002011-05-12T10:14:47.858-07:00I don't think facebook is any shallower than a...I don't think facebook is any shallower than any other means of broadcasting ones personality. It's just a technologically enabled method. In the past you could boast, sing, wear certain types of clothing to symbolize your status, etc (and you can still today). The difference is that facebook is closer to real time - in the past when you didn't see your friends all the time, you weren't constantly dealing with their projected vanity. Perhaps Ms. Smith should log off facebook, and see her friends and discover that they too, in real life, can be as vain as their projected status updates.lindurekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01128627597395701766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-24864469042931242422011-01-09T12:12:12.635-08:002011-01-09T12:12:12.635-08:00Hello again, C. Thanks for taking my question seri...Hello again, C. Thanks for taking my question seriously and giving me an answer to chew on.<br /><br />You refer to "our lower standards of teaching science." I'm tempted to think you are saying economics is <i>science</i>. Wow!The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-61706196671937337312011-01-09T08:09:12.918-08:002011-01-09T08:09:12.918-08:00Art -
Thanks for your comment. My focus on feder...Art - <br /><br />Thanks for your comment. My focus on federal debt here was mainly because government funds are being used to build the park in Kentucky and pay teachers' wages. The problem of private sector debt that you outline is of course also a issue that you could credit to our lowered standards of teaching science.<br /><br /><i>Why does everyone focus on the federal debt?</i> I can't speak for everyone but I can't help suggesting it's because federal money has that appealing combination of being both national and personal. So it's a convenient way to say an issue is misusing <i>my</i> money but also impacting an entire nation. Private sector debt, while staggering, is attached to "some business owner or property owner" in the public mind instead of "all of us."CWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05659688654057889460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-32604886559115401512011-01-09T01:10:04.416-08:002011-01-09T01:10:04.416-08:00Hi, Cara.
I like your second paragraph best. Plus ...Hi, Cara.<br />I like your second paragraph best. Plus the opening line there. :)<br /><br />But let me ask you: Why is it always the <b>federal</b> debt? You write --<br />"How can we expect these same students to ...reduce federal debt and revitalize our economy?"<br /><br />Perhaps you saw the graph a while back, showing total debt at 350% of GDP? Well, 50 of that 350 is government debt. 300 is private-sector debt. And much of the 50 was created to prop up the private sector... Why is it always the federal debt that concerns people?<br />Pray tell me...<br /><br />ArtThe Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-49198594728727652732010-04-15T18:38:02.765-07:002010-04-15T18:38:02.765-07:00Excellent post, Dan. It is hard to read the future...Excellent post, Dan. It is hard to read the future when the-powers-that-be have no clue what's wrong with the economy, and when the organized-opposition has no clue either and is energized by anger.<br /><br />I think the Tea Party will fizzle IF the economy improves. But just doing a little less bad for a while may not be sufficient. "You have to have lived in the 1950s and 1960s to have experienced a good economy." [Jude Wanniski in Reader's Digest, Feb 1995, p.49] The economy has not been "good" for a long time. <br /><br />What bothers me most is that so many people think political solutions can solve economic problems.The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-68818621721902888442010-03-26T15:45:45.146-07:002010-03-26T15:45:45.146-07:00Hi, Dan.
oh i suppose i'll get around to that...Hi, Dan.<br /><br />oh i suppose i'll get around to that music video eventually. Meanwhile, you've put together an excellent post here.<br /><br />"Keynes argued that when people were fearful about the future, they would hoard money (e.g. stuff money in the mattress), diverting savings from investment."<br /><br />If I remember my Keynes, he said and increase in savings (a decrease in spending) leads to an increase in inventories. And since inventories count as investment, Savings=Investment still holds true. But, he said, people mistakenly assume there is a "nexus" that causes money not spent on consumption to be used for productive investment.<br /><br />(I'm not disagreeing with anything you said here. I'm just testing my memory.)<br /><br />Nice to read a thoughtful post on the topic.The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-90936089587706218762010-01-27T13:39:52.875-08:002010-01-27T13:39:52.875-08:00Came across your blog via the "next blog"...Came across your blog via the "next blog" button. Good content here.<br /><br />My comment here is that the "default insurance" you cite in nonrecourse states was most likely charged based on historical norms for defaults and home values. If articles like Thaler's continue to encourage people to walk away from their mortgages, it's possible that would create the need for another TARP program.Salty Americanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16342769710806132313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-9024940555175984902010-01-25T19:27:58.472-08:002010-01-25T19:27:58.472-08:00Gail Collins is my favorite NY Times columnist, an...Gail Collins is my favorite NY Times columnist, and who I aspire to emulate in my own writing. Glad to see you appreciate her column as well, Dan. Enjoying your blog, as always.Jason Schroederhttp://www.threelittlefonzies.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-1244958545538704792010-01-09T08:26:59.758-08:002010-01-09T08:26:59.758-08:00Nice post, Dan! This is the sort of thing I can se...Nice post, Dan! This is the sort of thing I can see reading on the Op-Ed page of a major newspaper. You should consider submitting your best posts to newspapers. Might be a fun way to get yourself in print. Your writing style is clear and easy to digest. (I also read a few of your older posts.) And on this post in particular, I appreciated your argument. The idea of a banking industry who was pulled out of the fire by a huge government bailout lecturing some of the least-fortunate on the morality of their personal debt recovery plans is kind of absurd. I look forward to reading more!Jason Schroederhttp://www.threelittlefonzies.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-13429393303568635972009-08-22T19:49:42.728-07:002009-08-22T19:49:42.728-07:00Sounds like the primary reason that people like La...Sounds like the primary reason that people like Larry Katz are concerned about inequality is because of corruption and potential wrongdoing by the wealthy elite, since, as the adage goes, money is power. Fair enough. But there is nothing else intrinsic that I find worrisome about this, as long as the Larry Page and Sergey Brin stories are far more commonplace than the Bernie Madoff stories. I'm not bothered that [many] people are [a lot] wealthier than I am. Nor should the poorest be. I do not believe that the rich have gotten rich at my expense.<br /><br />I do agree with the intuition that economic inequality fosters innovations and programs, initiated by those above the poverty line, such as Bill Gates and his foundation, to provide economic opportunities to the poor.Gingihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14332518512499672370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-92058833524678091642009-07-05T20:41:41.834-07:002009-07-05T20:41:41.834-07:00Here's a big one for global warming: http://ww...Here's a big one for global warming: http://www.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/showlink.aspx?bookmarkid=PG6OC2Z96323&preview=article&linkid=9501bae5-c084-4fd3-943c-d53de3f46bfd&pdaffid=ZVFwBG5jk4Kvl9OaBJc5%2bg%3d%3d<br /><br />Sincerely, <br />MediaMentionsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-23910035424204011682009-04-08T17:46:00.000-07:002009-04-08T17:46:00.000-07:00Thanks for giving Violet some link love.Thanks for giving Violet some link love.Trench Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08096327652977309663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-83629379550742868402009-03-12T11:13:00.000-07:002009-03-12T11:13:00.000-07:00Dan you forgot about AIG... currently at 40 cents,...Dan you forgot about AIG... currently at 40 cents, it made the 99 cent store a month and a half ago and is heading towards the penny candy world. Lovely.J.D.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11327436197373136583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-25100063949695196082009-02-24T12:43:00.000-08:002009-02-24T12:43:00.000-08:00well yeah... that's why they call drinking and dri...well yeah... that's why they call drinking and drinking-related games "risk-taking behavior" - i am taking a risk by putting a bevy of germs into my system via my beer and am hoping i will not contract anything fatal. it's really a tossup every time.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04374052912655143968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-71336067060478810852009-02-01T17:33:00.000-08:002009-02-01T17:33:00.000-08:00Thanks!And now Paul Krugman has come down on the o...Thanks!<BR/><BR/>And now Paul Krugman has come down on the other side. He thinks protectionism will increase the fiscal multiplier. But he is (implicitly) assuming fixed exchange rates in his model. The vast majority of US trade is with countries with which it has flexible exchange rates (Canada, Mexico, Europe, etc.)Nick Rowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04982579343160429422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-91089530869993255372009-01-28T09:04:00.000-08:002009-01-28T09:04:00.000-08:00In our econometrics class yesterday, our prof brou...In our econometrics class yesterday, our prof brought up the very issue.<BR/><BR/>His example was boiling water with a lid on. He said him and his buddies from a range of disciplines, including a chemist who said it was an engineering problem, boiled a lot of pots of water to figure out if it was faster to have the lid on or not.<BR/><BR/>Issues were with who decides what "boiling" means, how do you know if there is a lid on if the water is boiling, and everyone had a sound theory to support either prediction.<BR/><BR/>By the end of the day, it was inconclusive. What was concluded was that noone changed their mind whether or not having a lid on made water boil faster. Your perception going into an experiment effects your interpretation.<BR/><BR/>As Gingi says "You can't lose!" just as long as you're generating sound theories that are influencing policy in the best way you believe.Tim Dzurillahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14401304806592196643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-15967619255848598132009-01-26T13:12:00.000-08:002009-01-26T13:12:00.000-08:00Alas, idealogists on either side will continue to ...Alas, idealogists on either side will continue to maintain their view regardless of the outcome. It is the nature of complex systems like the economy and the environment, compounded by our inability as a species to forecast the future. When the economy recovers eventually, the pro-stimulus camp will attribute it to an effective government bailout program at work; the anti-stimulus camp will argue that the economy could have recovered much more quickly without the package. Likewise, future temperature trends, no matter what they are, will reinforce the arguments by both sides: a warming planet in the face of large-scale mitigation efforts is evidence for the skeptics that human intervention is trumped by Mother Nature; conversely, a cooling planet would serve the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) argument that just as humans curbed the heating trend, so have they caused it in the first place.<BR/><BR/>Really, if you're an ideologist, you can't lose! And because the systems under examination are so complex, it is fairly easy to cherry pick data that supports your views.Gingihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14332518512499672370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-33418216932471677812009-01-18T10:48:00.000-08:002009-01-18T10:48:00.000-08:00It's already happening, 14,000 people have said th...It's already happening, 14,000 people have said they would volunteer on MLK day. Don't know whether they'll all show up, but just the idea of 1,000 people honoring MLK by volunteering their time is really cool.musdavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13278098841301037552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-15708797422554732512009-01-12T18:08:00.000-08:002009-01-12T18:08:00.000-08:00Danman - i think it would need to be 10 pct... cau...Danman - i think it would need to be 10 pct... cause otherwise id pay more in interest than if i bought it 2 years down the line.. but maybe he's not talking about people like me. I guess the biggest problem is those damn rich people who hoard all the money instead of spending it- that way their kids don't have to work and complain about the rates they get on CDs or something...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00244344711921354207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-28695174614870776062008-12-20T17:59:00.000-08:002008-12-20T17:59:00.000-08:00It's nice and all to look in hindsight at events a...It's nice and all to look in hindsight at events and label them Ponzi schemes. The difference is not only, as you point out, that of intent, but that of disclosure as well as risk exposure. If Madoff would have explicitly invited investors to bleed each other's principal gradually, he wouldn't be under house arrest right now. I identify with Kling's and Krugman's frustrations; both the credit crisis and the government response to it hinge(d) on the reallocation of existing money as opposed to the growth of asset values. What makes it akin to a Ponzi scheme is the now-apparent widespread ignorance by the public. But individual investors are not a perfect victim in Krugman's case, and it is the responsibility of the supporters of the bailout to realize that it is the people who pay for it, not the government. The investors in Madoff's scheme, by contrast, are near pure victims; their risk exposure should include the risk in investing in a shady hedge fund, not in taking part in a criminal scheme. They deserve to be "bailed out" before the beneficiaries of the $700B package.Gingihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14332518512499672370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-61943309158581030352008-12-20T05:14:00.000-08:002008-12-20T05:14:00.000-08:00What were your thoughts about Paul Krugman's op-ed...What were your thoughts about Paul Krugman's op-ed: The Madoff Economy.<BR/><BR/>-Davemusdavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13278098841301037552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-75227730635973315432008-12-11T16:57:00.000-08:002008-12-11T16:57:00.000-08:00First question, No.Second question, Yes.Trade and ...First question, No.<BR/>Second question, Yes.<BR/><BR/>Trade and globalization only have a tendency to exploit workers in countries that have a competitive advantage in labor costs. Setting a livable wage for workers should be the responsibility of the government of the nation that is being "exploited" opposed to the corporations that take advantage of that wage. Further, if the "exploitative" corporations were not in many of the countries that are being "expolited" then individuals would go jobless opposed to having less than ideal jobs.<BR/><BR/>Now the truth of the matter is that there is a ton of exploitation in the global community and much of that exploitation crosses the lines and alienates individuals from basic human rights. No economic system is perfect and capitilism is no exception . . . the fact of the matter is that corporations will go to the cheapest bidder (in a vacuum). It should be (and is) the job of the potentially exploited country to set policies that are fair and beneficial for their own economies. Only when this happens, can both parties be confident that trade and globalization are much more than a zero sum game . . .Mike LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02389411857829875788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-20237442487730215772008-12-11T07:19:00.000-08:002008-12-11T07:19:00.000-08:00I'd like to point out that the govt could buy ford...I'd like to point out that the govt could buy ford and GM for less than 10 bil at current market prices... of course, GM is a bargain at 4 bucks a share... they only lost ten times that much per share this past year... <BR/><BR/>if they do anything they need to wipe out the shareholders completely, but you know they won't.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00244344711921354207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-39762624701375135612008-12-05T19:42:00.000-08:002008-12-05T19:42:00.000-08:00In a sense, I agree . . . and, though I will go to...In a sense, I agree . . . and, though I will go to the grave claiming that bubba was the best president of all time, he did begin the trend of encouraging unqualified buyers to get homes that they could not afford and normally would not have the credit to receive mortgages for.<BR/>If you look at REIT indicies stacked against the Willshire 5000, you will see that historically growth rates were very similar until the mid 90's where real estate started nearly parabolic growth. how much correlation there is between government policies surrounding the housing market is questionable, but they do not help at best.<BR/>the real estate market was clearly overpriced and no legitimate person will contend that, but, like the stock market currently, the market in general has a tendency to panic and overreact in bad times. should we prop up to prevent against collapse? i really don't see why not. it is in what way we decide to do that which should be in question.<BR/>i don't claim to understand the intricasies of the subprime bailout, but it sounded to me like the government bought a shit-ton (legitimate measurement . . . look it up if you don't believe me) of bad mortgages. logically this would lead me to believe that the property collateralized for these bad loans would go into government ownership in any cases of default. how wrong am i in this assumption?<BR/>if this is in fact the case, i doubt that the government would do agreat job handling this real estate, but the point is that it isn't a total loss. in fact, logically it seems to me that the subprime equities were only overpriced to the extent that the property market was overpriced (plus an additional percentage for interest returns), but in the end, everything seems like an overreaction to me.Mike LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02389411857829875788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4664190527081896928.post-49425109918190527742008-12-05T11:21:00.000-08:002008-12-05T11:21:00.000-08:00you can keep kicking the can down the road, but ev...you can keep kicking the can down the road, but eventually it'll land at my feet.<BR/><BR/>no thanks.<BR/><BR/>what's happening? people/banks/investors have been irresponsible, and we want to make sure they get the opportunity for a graceful exit... at what cost? whatever.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00244344711921354207noreply@blogger.com